Counting Declarer’s Hand

The difference between good defenders and great ones? Great defenders know what declarer holds before the dummy comes down. Well, not quite. But by the time trick three or four rolls around, they’ve got declarer’s distribution figured out and a pretty good count on the high cards.

This isn’t magic. It’s just paying attention and doing simple arithmetic.

Why Counting Matters

You can’t defend blind. When partner leads the ♠6 and declarer plays low from dummy, what do you play? Without counting, you’re guessing. With counting, you know whether to win or duck, whether to return the suit or switch.

Every bid declarer made, every card they play, every pause they take tells you something. Your job is to add it all up.

Start with the Bidding

Declarer told you most of what you need to know before dummy appeared.

Say the auction went:

  • 1♥ - 1♠
  • 2♦ - 2NT
  • 3NT - Pass

Declarer opened 1♥ (5+ hearts), bid 2♦ (4+ diamonds, 12-18 HCP), and chose 3NT over supporting spades. That’s a hand with 5 hearts, 4 diamonds, probably 2-2 in the blacks. You already know the shape before trick one.

Example Hand #1: Using the Auction

Dummy
♠ K 8 4
♥ 9 3
♦ Q J 10 7
♣ A 9 6 2

Partner leads ♠6 (fourth best)

Auction: 1NT (15-17) - 3NT

Declarer has 15-17 HCP and balanced distribution. Dummy has 10 HCP. That puts declarer’s range at exactly 15-17. You hold 8 HCP.

Quick math: 40 total HCP - 10 (dummy) - 8 (you) - 15 minimum (declarer) = 7 HCP maximum for partner.

Partner can’t have both the ♥A and ♣K. Probably has one ace or the ♥K-Q. That changes your defense completely.

Count Distribution First

High cards matter, but shape comes first. Once you know declarer’s pattern, the rest falls into place.

The Follow-Suit Count

Every time declarer follows suit, tick it off. When they can’t follow, you’ve learned something huge.

Watch this hand:

Dummy
♠ A 6 2
♥ K Q 4
♦ 10 8 5 3
♣ K J 7

You (East)
♠ J 10 9 5
♥ 8 6 3
♦ K 7 2
♣ 9 5 4

Partner leads ♥A (you play the 3), then ♥2. Declarer wins the queen and plays ♠3 to the ace, ♠2 back to the king.

Count with me:

  • Declarer followed to 2 hearts, 2 spades
  • Started with 13 cards
  • Has shown 4 cards so far
  • 9 cards left to place in diamonds and clubs

Now declarer cashes the ♠Q. You discard a club. Partner discards a diamond.

Big news! Declarer started with 5 spades, partner with 2. That’s 7 spades accounted for between them.

You hold 4 spades. That’s all 13.

Declarer is 5-2-?-?. The question marks add up to 6 cards. When declarer plays diamonds, count them. If they show up with 3 diamonds, they have 3 clubs. If 4 diamonds, then 2 clubs.

The Math Gets Easier

Here’s the truth: You don’t need to count all four suits perfectly. Count three suits, and the fourth counts itself.

Most players count spades and hearts (because you see them first), then pick either diamonds or clubs based on what matters for the defense.

Example Hand #2: Three Suits Tell All

Contract: 4♥ by South

Dummy (North)
♠ 7 6 2
♥ K 10 8 4
♦ A Q 3
♣ K 9 5

You (East)
♠ K Q J 10
♥ 6
♦ 10 9 8 4
♣ Q J 10 3

Bidding: 1♥ - 2♥ - 4♥

You lead ♠K, partner plays the 8, declarer the 3. You continue ♠Q, partner plays the 9, declarer ruffs.

Already you know: Declarer started with 2 spades (followed once, ruffed the second).

Declarer leads the ♥2 to dummy’s 8, partner follows with the 3. You discard a diamond. Declarer continues with the ♥K, you discard a diamond, partner follows with the 5. Declarer plays the ♥10, partner shows out (discards a spade).

Count: Declarer has 6 hearts (partner had 2, you 1, dummy 4 = 7 total, so declarer has the other 6).

Declarer is 2-6-?-?. That’s 8 cards in the majors, leaving 5 cards in the minors.

Now when declarer leads to the ♦A and back toward hand, you know what to do. If declarer has 3 diamonds, they have 2 clubs. If 2 diamonds, they have 3 clubs. Either way, you’re counting the diamond plays to figure out the club position.

Counting High Cards

This is harder than counting distribution, but here’s the trick: You don’t count all the points. You count the ones that matter.

In a notrump contract, count aces and kings. That’s 16 HCP. If declarer opened 1NT (15-17), they need 15-17 total. Once you’ve seen 12 HCP in aces and kings, you know they can’t have more than 5 HCP in queens and jacks.

Example Hand #3: Count What Matters

Contract: 3NT by South

Dummy (North)
♠ 8 6 3
♥ A Q 5
♦ K J 10 4
♣ J 8 2

You (West)
♠ K Q J 9 2
♥ 10 6 3
♦ 7 3
♣ K 10 5

Bidding: 1NT (15-17) - 3NT

You lead ♠K, dummy plays low, partner the 5, declarer the 4.

Continue ♠Q, everyone follows low.

You shift to… what?

Time to count. Declarer opened 1NT, so 15-17 HCP. Dummy has 11 HCP. Partner played the ♠5 (probably from 10-7-5 or 10-5), so maybe the ♠10, worth 1 HCP generously.

You have 10 HCP. That’s 22 HCP between you and dummy. Declarer has 15-17, so partner has at most 40 - 22 - 15 = 3 HCP.

Partner can’t have the ♥K or ♣A or ♦A or ♦Q. Declarer has them all.

So when you shift, don’t lead clubs hoping partner has the ace. They don’t. Your only chance is hearts. Maybe declarer has ♥K-J-x and you can trap the jack. It’s not much, but it’s all you’ve got.

The Decision Framework

Trick 1-2: Start counting

  • What did the bidding promise?
  • What’s the HCP range?
  • Any obvious distribution clues?

Trick 3-5: Refine the count

  • What suits has declarer followed to?
  • Any suits they couldn’t follow?
  • What’s the likely pattern?

Trick 6+: Know the hand

  • By now you should have distribution locked
  • Count the key high cards
  • Make your defensive decision based on facts, not hope

Common Counting Positions

When Declarer Shows Out

The moment declarer can’t follow suit, you’ve learned two things:

  1. Their length in that suit (count how many times they followed)
  2. Their length in the other three suits (it’s 13 minus what you just counted)

When Partner Shows Out

Same idea, but now you also know declarer’s exact length in the suit. If partner started with 2, declarer started with 6 (you can count dummy and your hand to confirm).

When Declarer Ducks

Ducking often reveals count. If declarer ducks your second spade lead in notrump, they probably started with A-x-x. If they had A-x, they’d win (can’t afford to let you run the suit). If they had A-x-x-x, they might duck twice.

Practice This

Good counting doesn’t happen naturally. You have to work at it.

Start simple: Just count one suit. Pick spades. Count them every hand for a session. How many did declarer start with? Then add hearts. Then diamonds.

After a few sessions, you’ll do it automatically. You won’t even realize you’re counting. You’ll just… know.

And that’s when your defense takes off. Because you’re not guessing anymore. You’re counting.

Back to Encyclopedia